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AFC South - What You Need To Know


Houston Texans

-Record Last Year 11-5, AFC South Champions

-Season Win total 8.5 +110, -135

-Odds to win AFC South +275

-Odds to win AFC 16-1

-Odds to win Super Bowl 33-1

-Odds to make Playoffs +135

-This team was really fortunate last year, they wound up 11-5, winning 9 in a row, but won the 1st 2 of those in OT, and then 2 other ones by 2 points late in the games. 

-They were also +13 in turnover differential, which is often an unsustainable stat from year to year. On top of that the schedule gets much harder for them, they go from having one of the easier schedules, so the 4th hardest schedule headed into this season. Just a brutal first 7 weeks with away games in New Orleans, Chargers, Chiefs and Colts, 0-4 a real possibility...

-It's not all doom and gloom though, they still have Deshaun Watson, who should continue to improve, they have arguably the best WR in the league in Deandre Hopkins, pretty good RB depth starting with Lamar Miller, and most of their defense returning, a unit that was 4th in points per game allowed last year at just 19ppg a game, so a lot to like there

-I do think the Colts are much improved from last year, and the Jags should improve from 5 wins as well, so that's why we saw some initial Under money come in on their win total. 

-Bill O'Brien...



Indianapolis Colts

-Record Last Year 10-6

-Season Win total 9.5 -150, +120

-Odds to win AFC South -110

-Odds to win AFC 7-1

-Odds to win Super Bowl 14-1

-Odds to make Playoffs -210

-A lot of love for this team so far this summer as more and more reports continue to come out that Andrew Luck looks right. This time last year their win total was hovering around 6.5 because there was speculation Luck might not be back, not just last year, but maybe his career would be completely derailed by the shoulder injury. 

-Now they are the 3rd betting favorite in the AFC and the odds on favorite at -110 to win the division. 

-There's a lot to like here, their defense improved by leaps and bounds, to a top 10 defense last year, allowing just 21 ppg and were really solid against the run, good for 8th in the entire league. Add Justin Houston to that and this could be a top 5 defense this year. 

-On the offensive side, Luck looks good so far in camp, and of course Ty Hilton now complimented by Devin Funches over from Carolina, and this is a dangerous team.

-You will want to monitor Andrew Luck's calf. As of taping, he's been ruled out for at least a week with a calf injury. Those can linger. They're saying all the right things, but obviously without him any Over 10 bets are in trouble. Jacoby Brissett is a capable backup, but he's not leading you into the playoffs. 

Tennessee Titans

-Record Last Year 9-7

-Season Win total 8 +115, -140 

-Odds to win AFC South 6-1

-Odds to win AFC 35-1

-Odds to win Super Bowl 66-1

-Odds to make Playoffs 3-1

-I think of course you have to begin with Ryan Tannenhill...The Titans signed him in the offseason, knowing full well Marcus Mariota can't stay healthy, and quite frankly when he is healthy, he's not all that consistent. 

-There are some parts to like about this team, I'm not wild about their coach Mike Vrabel, I think he leaves a lot to be desired in terms of some of his in-game decisions. 

-But it all begins with the QB play. This team has a solid OLine, RB and WR core, but can't seem to get any consistency out of Mariota

-Their defense was really good last year, 9th in the league only allowing 18ppg, but I worry about a possible QB controversy down the line. Those seemingly never end well. This Under has taken some initial money for the reasons stated above along with the schedule, which is 3rd hardest in the league. All of that lands them with the longest odds to win the division at 6-1. 



Jacksonville Jaguars

-Record Last Year 5-11

-Season Win total 8 +105, -125

-Odds to win AFC South 4-1

-Odds to win AFC 18-1

-Odds to win Super Bowl 40-1

-Odds to make Playoffs +220

-This Jags a really interesting team to me. They bring in Nick Foles and lose Blake Bortles, And whatever you think of both, I think this had to be done. 

-The year before this was an all-time great defense, who was one quarter away from a Super Bowl, and I think what happened last year at times was the defense was just so dejected with Bortles, knowing he just gave them no shot to win, it's tough, like in any profession..especially when the leader plays like that. This was a team that was -12 in TO last year, unheard for a team with that many defensive skill players. For comparison the year prior in 2017 they were +10, so a 22-turnover difference in just 1 year. 

-Insert a Super Bowl champion level QB, and I get why some people are high on this team. I worry about Doug Maronne.


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