NFL Week 4 Sharp Report
NFL Week 4 Sharp Report
TheRealMrACL - September 30th, 2019
Sharps all over the Titans taking this number down to the key number of +3 at kick. Very little buyback or resistance on Atlanta. I passed the game entirely. Wanted no part of either team in this spot. Over money came in late as well from the public taking this to 46.5.
I played the Patriots down to Pickem in a tease. Historically the Pats perform very well in Buffalo. Most sharps played the Bills + the points in a divisional home spot for the Bills. With the low total and the Bills D performing well, I felt the opportunity to tease NE to win the game was the right play.
The Raiders got bet down to +6. Tough spot for both teams here. The Raiders were on b2b road games and have their London game next week, which is often a tough look ahead spot. The Colts were off a home win and have Kansas City on deck in a primetime spot. I wound up teasing the Colts to Pickem here. With Oakland's massive travel and look ahead spot, I wanted no part of the -6, but felt the tease was the right play. Sharps got the money here with the Raiders.
Sharps pounded the Dolphins all week down to as low as +14 at one point before massive resistance showed on the Chargers, taking this back up to -15 at kick. I played the Dolphins at +15. The Chargers were on cross-country travel with an early start time for a west coast team. They also had massive cluster injuries. This was the best spot Miami has had all season to cover and they failed. Tough loss ATS here.
Sharp money came in on the Chiefs late in the week off the Stafford news that he was hurt in practice on Friday and might not even play on Sunday. The public came in hard on the Chiefs as well. I played the Chiefs in a teaser down to Pickem and it got there. Many math guys see the Lions wins as somewhat phony, as they have actually been outgained in both of their wins.
Giants were bet up from -2.5 to as high as -3.5 at kick off news that Keenum would be starting. A pure fade of him. The move to Jones from Manning has not only sparked the offense, but the defense as well, as they now feel they actually have a chance. It was evident in their play on Sunday, albeit vs the Redskins. Pros and the Public all over this one. I passed the game.
Sharp money earlier in the week on the Ravens up to -7 with sharp buyback on the Browns at those levels. The look ahead on this line was Ravens -3.5. I felt the move was too aggressive and had a lean to the Browns, but ultimately passed the game. It was a tough spot for Baltimore with
Pittsburgh next week. This has historically been a bad look ahead spot for them.
I played Carolina +5 and they won outright. Sharps were mostly split on this game. As mentioned last week, I actually UPGRADE Carolina's power ranking with Allen in vs Newton. Carolina's offense is more dynamic and Allen, unlike Cam, can actually get the ball downfield. Public bet this game up to as high as Houston -5.5 before massive professional buyback on Carolina. The Over was bet up as well.
The Bucs was a very strong professional side. I leaned Tampa Bay as well, but was concerned about their mentality on a cross-country trip after the way they lost the Giants game. Many teams take a week or so to recover from that, and I didn't love the situational spot enough to take the Bucs, so I passed. Pros vs Joes game of the week here. Pros won.
I played the Vikings up to +8.5 in a teaser and was extremely disappointed to see Trubisky leave the game in the 1st quarter with a shoulder injury. That was a large part of this play-a pure fade of him against a very solid Vikings defense. The Vikings were one of the largest professional sides of the week, taking this game from the opener of +3 all the way down to +1.
Sharps were all over the road favorite Seahawks, taking this up to as high as -6 by kick. I passed the game. Wanted no part of Arizona here, but didn't love the situational spot for Seattle with a massive look ahead game vs the Rams on Thursday night. Arizona was coming off a home loss as a favorite as well, so the situation actually favored them.
I played the Jags up to +8.5 in a teaser. Solid mathematical teaser here with a low total, getting this game over a FG and a TD. Flacco very well might be the worst starting QB in the league at this point and Vic Fangio looks clueless on the sidelines. Professional money came in on Denver all week in this 'must-win' game for them sitting at 0-3. I disagreed with the move.
Sharps were on the Saints at +3, but and at +2.5 were mostly split. The Saints were a very popular teaser play up through the 3 and the 7. I played Dallas -2.5 and this was a frustrating game as the D held New Orleans to only 12 points. I didn't like the spot for New Orleans here--Coming back home after staying on the west coast for 2 weeks, and Bridgewater wasn't great last week either.