NFL Week 5 Sharp Report
NFL Week 5 Sharp Report
TheRealMrACL - October 7th, 2019
Sharp action came in on Arizona taking this down to +3 before minimal resistance came back on the Bengals. Arizona was a popular teaser up through the TD as well. I passed this game & wanted no part of either team here. Cinci on a short week after getting embarrassed on MNF, but with massive OLine issues, and Arz line deflated off Cinci loss. Lookahead line was +4, so little value at current numbers.
I played Chicago at -5 and this line closed -6.5. Sharps & the public both on Chicago. I didn't like the travel spot for Oakland here. B2B road games in Minnesota & Indy before traveling to London. The one advantage they did have was playing here last year, but Gruden didn't perform well in this spot last year either. I liked Chicago's approach to the travel spot & as well as the Mack revenge game. Surprised Chicago came out so flat to start the game.
Titans / Bills was held off the board for much of the week waiting for Allen news. Once he was announced in, this line settled at Tenn -3. Passed the game entirely. Not a great spot for Buff off the divisional home loss to NE and with a Bye week approaching--Often a flat spot for many teams. On the other hand, Tenn was coming off an upset win vs Atlanta, so not the best place to back them here either. A total pass for me.
I played the Bucs up to +10 in a teaser & cashed. While I didn't love the spot of b2b road games and off an upset win, I did think getting double digits vs Teddy Bridgewater in a divisional game was the right play. The Saints were off an upset win of Dallas and this was a huge game for Tampa in the divisional standings. Sharps Pounded TB all the way down to +2.5 at kickoff.
Solid bounce back spot for Minnesota against a poor Giants secondary. Player quotes all week from Cousins, Diggs, and Thielen indicated they were going to focus on the pass. As discussed on the Podcast, I hoped this line would open, or at least drop to -4 or lower, but it never did. Passed the game completely.
I took the Steelers up to +10.5 in the teaser with the Bucs and cashed. Baltimore was overvalued in this spot with public perception still not as high on Mason Rudolph as it should be in my view. He's now 3-0 ATS since taking over. That said, this was the first time Pittsburgh has seen Lamar Jackson, so taking this to +double digits was the play. Sharps were all over the Steelers. Public played back on Baltimore at -3.5 and -3 at kick.
Once Sam Darnold was announced out towards the end of the week the Eagles moved from -13.5 to -14.5. It was actually a pretty good spot for the Jets. Winless teams off the bye historically perform very well ATS. That said, the Jets QB situation makes that stat moot in my view as Luke Falk simply isn't an NFL level QB. I passed the game entirely. There was some sharp buyback on the Jets at +15 but not much.
New England was bet up to as high as -16.5 off the opener of -13. There was a bit of sharp resistance on the Redskins but very very little. It was an extremely tricky spot for NE---Off 3 straight divisional games and with a Thursday night game on deck, normally this would be a spot for significant play the Redskins getting double digits at home. However, I wanted no part of this Redskins team with a lame duck head coach (fired this morning) and a team that has seemingly quit with no clue what they are doing at the QB position either. A complete and total pass for me.
I played Carolina -3 and cashed. Tough situational spot for the Jags here. Much like the Bucs, we had a road team off b2b road games where they won the 1st one outright as a dog. Now they had to travel cross country to Carolina in Kyle Allen's 1st home game since taking over for Cam. I've been saying it for weeks, but I have Carolina power rated higher with Allen than with Cam. They are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS since Allen has taken over.
Solid spot for the Texans at home off a SU home loss as a favorite vs an Atlanta team with a lame duck Head Coach and a banged up secondary. I played Houston as part of a ML parlay. Despite these situational advantages many professional played Atlanta, taking them down to +4. I disagreed with the move.
Professionals came in on Denver most of the week taking this down to as low as +5.5. It was their "all-in" game to avoid an 0-5 start. The Chargers were coming back from a cross-country road trip and have massive cluster injuries on both sides of the ball. Divisional familiarity helped Denver here as well. I passed the game.
Dallas was bet up by professionals to as high as -4 off the opener of -3. I played Dallas at -3 and was wrong on this one. I really liked the spot they were in...Coming home after a SU loss to New Orleans, and only giving a FG. I have Dallas home-field as a 4-point advantage, so this line was saying GB was better on a neutral, which I disagreed with. I felt Dallas would be able to control the run game, but the Tyron Smith OL injury proved worse than imagined. Missed on this one.
The Chiefs rounded out the ML parlay with the Texans and this was a tough one. Mahomes looked to be injured halfway through the game, as well as some of the defensive injuries for the Colts who were questionable, decided to play. The Chiefs were a very popular teaser play down to -3 and -4 during the week. Many sharps also took the Colts at +11 going for the middle.