Fresh off a nice weekend where we gave out a +500 winner and a +430 winner, let’s run back this plus money lunch money bet column. This week there are only a couple of games, but there is plenty of money to take from your bookie. And, if you really want to beat the bookie, signup for a package with BTB and Jesse – to be clear these are not their plays.
Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay
Let’s get to the first one right away. Davante Adams +525 to score the first touchdown, it has now cashed seven out of the 15 games he has played in. With Tampa having a secondary that can be beat, and Green Bay having the best first half offense in all of football, sign me up for Adams to have the first touchdown again. Put down a jumbo pizza on this one. (No units in this article, just some simple lunch money. We did Mexican food last week, let’s go with Italian this week.)
Aside from the first TD scorer, Green Bay has been a top 10 red zone defense against a touchdown. If you think Tampa will march down the field and score first, a field goal is probably your best bet. Bucs are +425 to score first with a field goal. I think this is absolutely worth a piece of lasagna.
I think I’m going to go with a game that is going to show off two of the best QBs to ever do it. Rodgers has thrown over 2.5 touchdowns at home in five of nine games. He is at +145 for that one. He didn’t throw a touchdown against the Bucs the first time they played but Tampa Bay is in the bottom half of the league in touchdown’s given up through the air per game and gives up about 68% of touchdowns through the passing game. Good enough for me to do spaghetti and meatballs on this.
One last one for you, Leonard Fournette has found the end zone in both playoff games. Once on the ground and once in the passing game. At +190 he has some pretty decent value against a Green Bay defense that has made running backs look pretty good this year. Sprinkle a side of garlic bread on it.
And, yes, it is possible all four of these to hit. FanDuel (you can get signup credit through Outkick – site of featured contributor BeatintheBookie) will let you parlay Adams (1st) and Fournette (any time) to +1342 (note: Adams is +500 at FD and Fournette is +130, not the same as all other numbers from DraftKings).
Buffalo vs. Kansas City
Mahomes is playing this weekend, so let’s just start by saying this is written with that factual statement in mind. The Chiefs have given up a rushing touchdown to a quarterback in six games. Being that Allen is a runner, I like a small play of +135 for Allen to score a touchdown. He is as good of an option as any for scoring first at +1100 as well, which is even juicier. I’d put an individual sized baked ziti on both.
For Kansas City, I spent more time than I probably should’ve looking at books trying to find a line on Butker missing an extra point. At this point, I’m not sure that it would even be plus money. Anyway, Kelce scored two touchdowns last time they played he is only +350 to do it again. Not enough in my opinion to warrant it. Buffalo has a really nice passing defense, but of all touchdowns scored against them, 46.81% have come on the ground, most in the league. They are in the bottom fourth of the NFL with 1.2 rushing touchdowns scored against them per game. If Mahomes wasn’t hurt I’d love him to score and maybe score first, but I don’t think they will risk running him at all. That leaves a really crowded KC backfield. If CEH is playing, I will take him to score at +145 and score first at +1100. If he isn’t, I’ll switch it over to Darrell Williams, (+210, +1500). Nothing big on this one, probably just a nice piece of tiramisu.
Finally, overall, I think this game will also start the scoring with a field goal, this is not analytical, just that I think both defenses will have drives put on them to start but not give up a touchdown. Put a shrimp scampi meal on both sides at +460.
- David Troy
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