Last week, I shared my favorite DeVante Adams stat, it hit. I also talked about how the teams were more likely to kick a field goal. As I tweeted out, I wouldn’t give me 100% credit, but if you played them, you were getting like 7ish units depending on where you bet it. Let’s try and have another profitable day. I’ll share more plus money lunch money plays that I think have good value. If you want expert picks though, pay for BeatinTheBookie and BTBJesse’s plays; the packages pay for themselves.
In what is likely the most anticipated game of the young NFL season, Tom Brady returns to New England to face his former team (something I’m sure the NFL would’ve done if they had enough time last season to figure it all out). Obviously, the marketing teams have hyped this up and are likely to have somewhere between 10 and 50,000 metaphors, mentions, and videos about Brady’s time in New England. In my opinion, this will be the most bet on game outside of any playoff game all season. There are some good opportunities though.
Bill Bellichick is really smart and one of the best coaches in the history of football. Typically he tries to take away someone on the offense. My guess is he will attempt to take away Rob Gronkowski. Gronk also is making his return to New England and I suspect Brady will try to look Gronk’s way, I also know Brady isn’t dumb enough to force the issue just because of the sentimental significance of the game. Keep in mind, Antonio Brown is also coming back after he was released from New England. Everyone will look Gronk’s way in the red zone, including Bellichick, I’m looking Brown’s way and playing him to score the first touchdown of the game at +950. Not comfortable with that, or want to double down, Brown as the first touchdown scorer for Tampa is +600.
As far as the game goes, I don’t expect Brady to just try and throw until his arm falls off. However, I don’t know a single receiver on the Patriots that would be likely to lead the game in receiving yards. Even with a balanced game plan, I’d expect Brady to get his receivers more action than Mac Jones will. On FanDuel, you can find the receiver with the most yardage for the game – I’m playing Mike Evans at +430. I don’t know who can guard him and Brady looks his way as often as he does anyone else.
One last one for you. I think Tampa gets off to a quick start and that both teams are likely to score. On DraftKings there is an option for over 10 points scored in the first quarter at +120. It’s a small play, and I’m not sure if you push if only 10 points are scored (I would assume you do) but I think that it happens. I also like that the first scoring play for the Patriots is a field goal (+110 on FanDuel).
I can’t find it anywhere, but I’d put a cup of soup on the Patriots being shut out as well. The Buccaneers seem to really love Tom and know how important this game will be. I don’t think they show any mercy.
David Troy - BTB Site Contributor and NBA Analyst (@futureprez2024)