Thursday Night Football Preview
David Troy (@FuturePrez2024) - November 5th, 2020
Green Bay vs San Francisco
In what might have looked like a great matchup at the beginning of the NFL season, we now have the somewhat reeling Packers facing the 49ers that may have more injured than active players. But, football is still better than no football in my book, so let’s take a look at the matchup and see if there are any props or trends to take advantage of tonight.
Green Bay comes in losing two of their last three games. Tampa was a disaster after the first quarter, but I mostly blame the officials for the Minnesota game. How they pick up a flag on a clear pass interference on fourth down is just beyond me, but I digress. This is a good bounce back spot even if the Packers don’t get Jones back and are down to their 4th string running back, they should coast in this game. Rodgers has reportedly held a grudge against the 49ers for not drafting him, but it has only resulted in a 4-3 regular season record. The last two games in San Francisco he has only thrown 1 touchdown in each game. But, keep in mind, this 49er defense is decimated, so look for him to improve upon that total tonight.
San Francisco comes in losing three of their last five games. Nick Mullens is expected to start, and he did well against the Seahawks in relief of Jimmy G. But, keep in mind, Nick Foles looked great against the Falcons when he came in for the Bears and has been trash since. When a team can game plan for the QB the defense is better, so expect Mullens to have a harder time. Remember, against the Eagles, Mullens was benched in the middle of the game.
Davante Adams has been balling lately. He missed two games and he still leads the team in targets – averaging over 11 per game. Although he only had 53 yards against the Vikings, he scored three touchdowns. He has scored a touchdown in four of five games and multiple touchdowns in three out of five. Tonight is another opportunity against a banged up secondary to look at his touchdown props. Adams is only +200 to score two touchdowns tonight on DraftKings, to me, that isn’t nearly enough to get me to play it but I think there is a better than 50% chance it hits.
For San Francisco, I expect Taylor to receive the bulk of wide receiver targets (he received 4 of his 5 targets after Mullen came in against the Seahawks). McKinnon will also get a bunch of dump off passes and some of the carries so his rushing/receiving prop is in play for the over 51.5. Aside from the first game against Minnesota the Packers have done an admirable job against WR1 for the opposing team keeping them right around 60 yards.
This isn’t really an indicator of anything other than game planning, but Jones or Adams have scored the first touchdown in the last four games. In the first three games against the Packers, the opposing running back scored the first touchdown. There isn’t anything definitive, but if you’re looking for .25 or .5 unit plays, Adams, Jones (if he plays), or a SF running back could be worth it.
However, you play it, good luck. Take the easy route and join the BTB team.
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