Last season, I ended the year by giving out a play on Jorge Soler to win the World Series MVP. It was a winner and a big one at that. This year, I'm changing it up for those loyal BTB readers and trying to find some plus money props to put a bit of lunch money on. I'm hoping that we can grab one or two, but just for the record, the bets are all coming from DraftKings.
Series Correct Score
To me, there is very little question about the better team in the series. That doesn't always matter, but the Astros are the better team in my opinion and I do think they win the series. Ultimately, I don't think it goes seven games, so I'm taking a half unit for each of these and putting it on the Astros to win 4-2 at +340 and for them to win 4-1 at +500. The Phillies are a legitimate contender and are playing as well as they could hope for right now, but I think they run out of gas against the Astros.
Series Total Home Runs
The Phillies have been crushing the ball. The Astros have had their fair share of home runs, but in the World Series, things get a bit tighter. I think the price on the under homers at 12.5 is fair at -135. I'm assuming, again, that the series doesn't go seven games, and might not even go six. We have four really solid starting pitchers - at least four, probably more like five or six. I don't see there being more than two home runs per game. I'll take the under even though it isn't plus money.
Exact Outcome
This is a truly ridiculous endeavor. I tried to do this for the NBA last year with I think a quarter unit and it blew up really quickly. Basically, you predict how the series will go by the exact order of the wins. I'll try and be that ridiculous - but honestly, these aren't even good odds, so I'll not risk more than a quarter unit combined on these bets. The first one to me is Hou/Philly/Hou/Hou/Phi/Hou at +3500 and the second is Hou/Hou/Hou/Phi/Hou at +1600. The second actually seems less likely to me as it seems like the Astros would need to beat the combination of Wheeler and Nola three times in the same series.
Player with the Most Homers
Rhys Hoskins pretty much doesn't do anything but hit home runs, so I'll put a little bit on him at +900 and then Harper at +600 because he's been locked in and if the Phillies win, he probably is going to have to be the reason for it. Alvarez is a masher, but my guess is that the Phillies are extra careful with him.
Player with the Most Hits
Jose Altuve is one of my picks to be MVP. He is a better hitter than what he's shown, and I think he's starting to heat up at the right time. It is funny that he is the favorite at +450 but 14:1 to be MVP. The other option would be Nick Castellanos. The guy makes good contact regularly and it really wouldn't shock me if he got this done. Side note: I'm still upset that my preseason bet of Trea Turner to be the MLB hits leader lost... by like five hits to his teammate.
Remember, these shouldn't be big bets that you're hoping are life-changing, they are meant to be fun while you're watching the World Series. I put effort into these and believe in them, but I also am realistic and know there is a possibility that they all lose. I'm most confident in the Total Home Runs if that makes a difference to anyway. Hope we can all enjoy some free lunch together if some of these hit. My best advice is to take a unit or two and sprinkle it around on these.
Good luck!
- David
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