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Jacksonville Jaguars, 9-8 last season, 1st in division
If you called the Jaguars making the playoffs last season, I will tip my cap to you. I'm not quite sure who I expected to win this one, but probably the Titans. The Jaguars turned in a very solid performance and were able to steal the division away late in the season. After years of kind of being the butt of jokes, they now have a franchise quarterback and strong defense. There is no lack of potential on this team, it just matters how well they can string together progress this season. The team also got better offensively with Calvin Ridley in the mix now. They really don't have any glaring holes on their offense any longer. I don't see them winning more than 9 games this season, and that is if everything goes right for them. I'd play the under 9.5 wins for them this season.
Tennessee Titans, 7-10, 2nd
I've made a claim about the Titans for years: they play half of a game. The half they play well, they can compete with just about anyone. The half they don't they could lose to just about anyone. They inexplicably traded away their best wide receiver last season and the offense was left with next to nothing. This should be a strange year for them as they have Ryan Tannehill starting but Malik Willis and newly drafted Will Levis waiting in the wings. At the first sign of trouble, I expect the Titans to call it a season and see what they have in their young quarterbacks. DeAndre Hopkins is now in the mix and I'm interested to see what he has left in the tank. The defense should be solid and Derrick Henry is still one of the best running backs in football. I wouldn't be surprised to see them take the division if all goes well and they get a bit of luck. I'll take the Titans over 7.5 wins.
Indianapolis Colts, 4-12-1, 3rd
What is happening with the Colts? They had one of the better running backs in football, Jonathan Taylor, request a trade earlier and now are granting him permission to seek a trade. They had to figure out what to do about their quarterback situation and are turning to fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson. I'm not sure how well this guy will do for the Colts, but I'm not counting on him being revolutionary for them. None of their skill players gives me much faith that they will help make Richardson's life easier. I don't see them winning seven games, so I like the under 6.5 for the Colts in this season. Maybe they perform better than I expect and they can do it. Still, I'll play under 6.5 at +100.
Houston Texans, 3-13-1, 4th
This is yet another rebuilding year for the Texans which really isn't much of a surprise. They were able to add C.J. Stroud to the mix and it will be interesting to see how effective he can be in the first year under center. He has some decent enough position players that could help him, but getting used to a new system, likely playing from behind most games, and trying to make a connection with his receivers doesn't leave much room for optimism. I also like the under 6.5 for this squad. I think this is likely to be one of the worst divisions in football and I'd be surprised if we get two teams over .500.
Good Luck!
- David
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