- David Troy
NL Cy Young Value Bets at the Midseason
We aren't quite at the midsummer break of the All-Star Game but that doesn't mean that we can't look at some potential value bets for the MLB Cy Young candidates. A lot can change in half a year, consider that Jake Arrieta essentially won his NL Cy Young based on one half-season, and so have others, but that's the point of this. We are going to look at pitchers that are pitching well, have good odds, and are worth putting a play on. If you want something that is absolutely cruising right now, though, pick up the MLB Packages. Jesse is in the midst of a 16-3 MLB run and BTB has been crushing the books all season. This article will focus on the NL Cy Young candidates.
Tony Gonsolin has been a great pitcher this season. He currently has the ERA lead for the majors, but the biggest drawback for him is he has only tossed 74 innings in his starts. Part of that is because he is basically allowed five innings and nothing more in almost all of his starts. He has 14 starts on the season but hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any start all season. He's also only gone six innings in half of those starts. Everything else is 5.2 or less. If he can start to through the sixth inning more consistently, he has a great shot. He was 35:1 last week, but I still think he is worth the flyer at +1700 that he is at today.
As far as the favorite markets, I wouldn't bet any of them but here are some thoughts. Sandy Alcantara is the current favorite, at just +260, he really isn't worth taking at this point. Anything can still happen. I think Corbin Burnes was at around +250 or more for Cy Young in September last year before he ultimately won the award. Speaking of Burnes, he's having a solid year, but I think he probably needs to really do something special in the second half to get the award for the second year in a row. Joe Musgrove has been a bright spot for the Padres this season. He's currently at +500 and has the third-best ERA in the NL. He has gotten better each ear for the past three seasons, so maybe this is the one he puts it together. Last season he was strong in August and October, but brutal in September.
I laughed out loud when I saw Patrick Corbin was an option for Cy Young. At +10000, he might be the worst choice on the board. He probably should be +500000. He would need to basically throw no-hitters every game in order to win.
My preseason favorite, Walker Buehler, is now 90:1. I'm not doubling down, but I might add a small play on him. Maybe I'm a fool, but he has the talent to be a Cy Young winner. The results haven't been there at home so far.
One player I think is worth a bit of consideration is Miles Mikolas. He's already had a season-defining game with 8.2 no-hit innings. He's 13th in ERA at 2.57 and 9th in WHIP. He's also at +10000 which is a ton of value. You're telling me he has the same odds as Corbin or Blake Snell? It is worth it.
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